Semi-bold Predictions for 2010: Revisited

Let’s see how terrible I did.

The last-place Pilots did not manage to pull within eight games
of first place.

If you’ve been following 49thStateHardball since way back when, before the beginning of the season, you’ll remember at one point that I made some “semi-bold predictions” as part of my 2010 season preview. But the biggest fun of making predictions prior to the season is stringing me up like a human pinata post-season to lash me for all my terrible guesswork. So, here it is. My predictions revisited. Let the flogging begin!

Prediction #1: “The spread between first and last place will be eight games or less.”

Man, was I way off on this one. The spread between the first-place Miners and last-place Glacier Pilots was a whopping 19 games. I still don’t understand how they did that bad; they didn’t look that bad on paper but I guess that’s why we play the games. 

Prediction #2: “The spread between the top three teams will be three games or less.”
Verdict: CORRECT

This was a race right down to the wire, with the defending champs (the Miners), my predicted champs (the Goldpanners) and the team that I recognized as most improved (the Oilers, see below) all running right down to the wire. The spread was within my predicted margin; the Oilers finished in third place at 1.5 GB.

Prediction #3: “The Oilers will…finish above .500 and will be in the top three.”
Verdict: CORRECT

I knew the Oilers would be a much better team this year. They’ve been riding their pitching staff the past few years, and this looked like another formidable crew of hurlers, but the difference this year is they appeared as though they would have the run support to make it happen. And I was right. They didn’t hit the cover off the ball or anything, but they had some exciting hitters and managed as a team to scrape up enough runs to support the excellent pitching.  I was tempted to predict them the league champions, even, and I wouldn’t have been too far off had I done so.

Prediction #4: “The Goldpanners will take first place this year.”

I was wrong on this one, but not by much. I knew that the Goldpanners had a good shot. I also knew — and stated — that there were a lot of good teams and that the championship would be up for grabs. I had no idea, though, that it would come down to one final game between the Miners and Panners where the winner of the game would decide the championship. And I’m still in a little bit of shock. What a way to finish the 2010 season. Anyway, the Goldpanners didn’t win it, so this is incorrect, but they lost by one game on the last day of the season, so I was pretty close.

So there you have it, 2 for 4 (or 3 for 5 if you want to be nice and break #3 into two predictions). A 50% success rate is actually better than I thought I’d do! And better than that psychic lady who is always on Montel, so hey, I think I’m did pretty good. Of course you’re welcome to leave me a comment if you would like to differ. Next season I’ll have to go out on a few more limbs and see if I can’t do better.

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Article by Jesse Jack

Jesse Jack is a life-long Alaskan (except for a stint in Montana) who studies Civil Engineering at the University of Alaska Anchorage from August through May, and lives at the ballpark during June and July.
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